The global platinum market is expected to remain in deficit for a fourth consecutive year in 2026, even as supply begins to stabilize and demand moderates following a sharp rally in the metal’s price.
New projections from the World Platinum Investment Council (WPIC) show a deficit of about 240,000 ounces for 2026 following a significantly larger shortfall of 1.082 million ounces in 2025.
That’s the deepest deficit recorded in the group’s Platinum Quarterly data series since it began in 2014. According to data, the cumulative deficit since 2023 will approach 3 million ounces by the end of 2026.
As a result, aboveground platinum stocks are expected to remain historically low, falling to about 2.613 million ounces, which is equivalent to just over four months of global demand for the precious metal.
WPIC CEO Trevor Raymond said the factors that fueled platinum’s strong performance last year are expected to remain.
“The key drivers of platinum’s price rally in 2025, namely strong supply/demand fundamentals, a depletion of above ground stocks, and macropolitical uncertainty-driven precious metals demand, are expected to persist in 2026,” he said.
“Consequently, market tightness is likely to continue, maintaining investor interest in platinum, and further supporting bar and coin and ETF demand throughout the year.”
Platinum investment strength offsets softer overall demand
The forecast marks a shift from earlier expectations that the platinum market would return to balance in 2026.
Instead, strong investment sentiment and resilient exchange-traded fund holdings have pushed the market back into deficit territory. Even so, total demand for platinum is expected to decline moderately this year.
The WPIC projects overall demand will fall about 8 percent year-on-year to roughly 7.619 million ounces.
Much of that drop reflects a normalization in investment demand after a surge in 2025, when inflows into platinum exchange-traded funds and physical investment products climbed sharply.
However, demand for physical platinum bars and coins is expected to continue growing.
The WPIC forecasts that bar and coin investment will jump 35 percent in 2026 to 725,000 ounces, reaching the highest level recorded in the Platinum Quarterly dataset.
Investment purchases of platinum are increasing as the metal gains attention as a lower-priced alternative to gold, and as retail investment products become more widely available.
Supply growth lags as platinum deficit persists
While demand patterns shift across sectors, platinum supply growth remains limited.
Total platinum supply is expected to rise just 2 percent in 2026 to about 7.379 million ounces.
Mine output is forecast to remain essentially flat at roughly 5.553 million ounces, with production gains in South Africa and Zimbabwe offset by declines in North America and Russia.
The modest increase in supply will largely come from recycling. Higher platinum prices have encouraged the recovery of spent autocatalysts and recycled jewelry, pushing recycling supply up about 10 percent in 2025. That trend is expected to continue this year, with recycled metal rising another 10 percent to approximately 1.827 million ounces.
Still, the additional recycled material is unlikely to fully offset the underlying market tightness. As Raymond noted, another factor that could further deepen the deficit has yet to be fully reflected in current forecasts.
“One item not yet captured in the supply/demand balance is any exchange stocks warehoused with the Guangzhou Futures Exchange, which could potentially deepen the deficit versus current projections once these are made publicly available,” he said. For platinum investors, the persistence of deficits suggests that the market’s underlying fundamentals remain supportive even as demand moderates from last year’s highs.
“The price rally we’ve seen this year has not solved the deficit,” he said.
“Normally, in a deficit market, you would expect the price to increase. Clearly, the elevated prices we’ve experienced is still insufficient to attract more supply into the market or drag more metal out of aboveground stocks.”
With supply growth limited and inventories shrinking, the platinum market is likely to remain structurally tight, sustaining investor interest through 2026.
Securities Disclosure: I, Giann Liguid, hold no direct investment interest in any company mentioned in this article.